Something's rotten in the state of Denmark

Friday, November 26, 2004

Provisional Ohio: 100,000 (okay, maybe 80K after they threw some out) left to go!

Here's the latest on the provisional counting in Ohio. With 64 of 88 counties reporting, we have the following results:

Bush +29,285
Kerry +23,947

If you read Kausfiles, it may sound like Bush is shockingly soaring to winning the provisional ballot sweepstakes and cementing his Ohio victory.

But remember that there were 155,000+ provisional ballots, and with almost 80% of provisional ballots reported to have been accepted, that means that those numbers are probably 40% of the total number of accepted provisional ballots.

And also remember that those other 60% of the provisional ballots? They're coming from Ohio's largest counties, including Democratic strongholds like Cuyahoga.

What this does, mean, however, is that Kerry was prescient in the hours before his concession in realizing that he was not going to win Ohio based solely on the provisional vote tally. If Bush did not win a single other vote beyond that 29,285 votes, it would still be impossible for Kerry to surmount the 130,000 gap between him and Bush.

Kerry was prescient in that regard. What he did not expect or know was how many other glitches and irregularities would shake up people's faith in the integrity of the voting process.

But cheer up, Kerry fans. What can possibly happen is that Kerry could still do well enough in the urban counties' provisional ballot counts to chop the margin between him and Bush to 50,000 or so.

Which is at least a smaller margin to surmount by the recount... that won't start until after the votes are certified by December 6. And then, let the chad examination begin!